A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
